Assalamu Alaikum Ya Nesan!

The results of the 2018 local government elections come as no surprise. What does surprise people is that a government like the UPFA/UNP alliance would have selected a First Past the Post voting system, which is known to be disadvantageous to coalition governments. By agreeing to this system, the UNP, which is currently a coalition government, has literally soiled its own possible victory. None the less such has come to pass, and the much expected victory for the Sri Lanka Podujana Peremuna (SLPP) has come about.

Changing the voting system from Proportional Representation voting to Mixed Proportional Representation voting (which includes First Past the Post voting) was done with a promise of yielding a stable government. However it has achieved anything but, because for the first time in the country’s history the governing organs have been spread across 3 parties. The executive branch is with the UPFA, the central government is with the UNP and the local government bodies have gone to the SLPP. With such a split, it seems the elusive goal of stable government has become even more elusive.

The government has repeatedly claimed that the victory of the SLPP has been due to the “will of the people” changing since 2015, and that it is a “warning” to them. However if you look at the voting tally such is not the case. The SLPP, which is largely associated with Mahinda Rajapakse, and the UPFA/UNP alliance have secured a vote that is similar to the 2015 election where the Rajapakse faction had about 44 percent and the UPFA/UNP alliance had roughly about 52 percent of the public vote, and therefore no change in the “people’s will” can be seen. The different outcome is solely because of the change in the voting system, and how the winner is selected. For a discussion of the new voting system, Ibn Serendib invites you to read the article titled “LG elections 2018 with new election system”.

All this instability puts minorities in a questionable position. Not only will the First Past the Post voting system marginalize minority votes, the unstable governments that it will yield may cause ruling parties to pander to the largest ethnic group. Therefore 2018 symbolize a revolution in the politics of the island, and in-keeping with these changes, the Saracen should adopt a different strategy to maintain their interests within the country.

Future elections which will be held under the Mixed Proportional Representation voting system, and therefore the outcome of these elections have become anyone’s guess. Will Mahinda make a spirited return to power? Will the UNP come to power after a very long absence? Will the incumbent president run for a second term? There are so many interesting questions.

May Allah preserve the integrity of our nation, Ameen!